Inflation, Interest and the National Debt
America faces an array of complex fiscal and economic challenges, including high inflation, rising interest costs, unsustainable debt and recession fears. We asked experts with diverse views from across the political spectrum to share their perspectives and insights to help understand the landscape and identify solutions.
The Fiscal and Economic Experts
David Beckworth
Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center, George Mason University
Responsible Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
William C. Dudley
10th President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Senior Advisor, Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies, Princeton University
Five Fundamental Changes for U.S. Fiscal Policy
Karen Dynan
Professor of the Practice, Harvard University
High Inflation and Fiscal Policy
Wendy Edelberg
Director of the Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution
Recession Remedies in the Face of High Inflation
Nela Richardson
Chief Economist, ADP
Help Wanted: A Fiscal Policy for the Future
Brian Riedl
Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute
Rising Interest Rates Threaten Washington’s Solvency
Sita Slavov
Professor of Public Policy, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University
Mad Money: How to Fight the Inflation Tax
Marc Sumerlin
Managing Partner, Evenflow Macro
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Work Best Together
Diane Swonk
Chief Economist, KPMG
A Meteor Shower: Inflation in a Post-Pandemic World
William G. Gale
Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy, Brookings Institution
Swati Joshi
Research Assistant, Brookings Institution
Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Budget: New Challenges, Old Solutions
Dana M. Peterson
Chief Economist & Center Leader of Economy, Strategy & Finance, The Conference Board
Lori Esposito Murray
President, Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Inflation Fighting and Ensuring Fiscal Health Starts Now
Questions for the Experts
We asked each expert to respond to the same set of specific questions, encouraging them to focus on their areas of expertise, and what they viewed as the most important areas of the policy discussion.
The questions are:
1. What is the impact of inflation and rising interest rates on our nation’s fiscal outlook?
- Where do you see rates heading over the medium term (next ten years), and what are the factors that might drive them higher or lower?
- How do these trends impact expectations for the level of federal interest costs in coming years
- How does higher inflation impact your assessment of our economic outlook and stability?
2. How should fiscal policy be used in this period of high inflation?
- What factors and data should be considered in determining the right balance of fiscal policy to help limit inflation going forward while trying to prevent a recession?
- How do fiscal and monetary policy interact, and how can they be used in a consistent approach to achieve the best overall outcome?
A note from Michael Peterson
Chairman and CEO of the Peterson Foundation
A year ago, we began this initiative to bring together a diverse range of expert voices from around the nation to help guide us through these challenging fiscal and economic times.
Last year’s project, America’s Fiscal and Economic Outlook: Where Do We Go from Here?, took place as our nation continued to grapple with the pandemic, outlining the connection between national preparedness, economic strength, and a sustainable fiscal outlook.
This year, we are once again navigating a range of rapidly evolving, complex and interconnected challenges. As we face the storm of inflation, there are many questions surrounding the optimal set of fiscal, monetary and economic policy to steer us through and give our economy the best chance for a soft landing amidst elevated interest rates and unsustainably high debt and deficits.
With diverse views from across the political spectrum and deep policy expertise, these authors provide valuable analysis and insight on timely topics including the impacts of and outlook for inflation and interest rates; concerns about an economic recession; the unsustainable national debt and growing interest costs; the interplay between fiscal and monetary policy; shortfalls in the social safety net; and the role that labor market productivity plays in our economy.
By sharing the thoughts and perspectives of this distinguished group of experts, we hope to foster conversations and inspire policy solutions that will help move our nation towards a more sustainable future.