Next year, the newly elected president and Congress will face a series of consequential fiscal decisions, and Americans are calling on lawmakers to address our rising national debt. Broad majorities of voters oppose tax cut extensions that would add to the debt, citing the risk of inflation as a key concern, according to a new Peter G. Peterson Foundation survey.

The national poll, jointly conducted by Democratic firm Global Strategy Group and Republican firm North Star Opinion Research, finds:

• 55% of voters oppose extending expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) if it would add to the debt. After hearing that additional borrowing for tax cuts could contribute to higher inflation, the percentage of voters in opposition jumps nine points to 64%;
• 87% agree that lawmakers should cut spending or raise other revenue to ensure any potential tax cuts don’t add to the debt;
• 83% are concerned that tax cuts that add to the debt will increase the cost of housing;
• 79% agree that rising inflation is more concerning from a personal finance perspective than higher taxes; and
• 92% of Republicans and 86% of Democrats are urging President-elect Trump and the next Congress to begin addressing the $36 trillion and rising national debt in the first 100 days of the new administration.

More broadly, the November U.S. Fiscal Confidence Index, modeled after the Consumer Confidence Index, is 54 (100 is neutral) — six points lower than November 2016, when Trump was elected to his first presidential term. The percentage of voters who report that their concern about the debt has increased (80%) is 15 points higher than it was in November 2016.

“Our national debt just crossed $36 trillion and sadly we’re currently on pace add $22 trillion more over the next decade,” said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation. “Voters understand that this rising tide of debt and record interest costs threaten their personal financial situation because it risks reigniting inflation, including housing costs. The key fiscal deadlines in 2025 are a valuable opportunity for lawmakers to prioritize our fiscal health.  They should find revenue or spending offsets for any tax cuts they want to extend, and ‘do no fiscal harm’ so that we can begin to build a more secure economic future.” 

The Fiscal Confidence Index measures public opinion about the national debt by asking six questions in three key areas:

• CONCERN: Level of concern and views about the direction of the national debt.
• PRIORITY: How high a priority addressing the debt should be for elected leaders.
• EXPECTATIONS: Expectations about whether the debt situation will get better or worse in the next few years.

The survey results from these three areas are weighted equally and averaged to produce the Fiscal Confidence Index value. The Fiscal Confidence Index, like the Consumer Confidence Index, is indexed on a scale of 0 to 200, with a neutral midpoint of 100. A reading above 100 indicates positive sentiment. A reading below 100 indicates negative sentiment.

Fiscal Confidence Index Key Data Points:

• The November 2024 Fiscal Confidence Index value is 54. (The October value was 51. The September value was 47.)
• The current Fiscal Confidence Index score for CONCERN about the debt is 42, indicating deep concern about the debt. The score for debt as a PRIORITY that leaders must address is 23, indicating that Americans want elected leaders to make addressing long-term debt a high priority. The score for EXPECTATIONS about progress on the debt is 98. The Fiscal Confidence Index is the average of these three sub-category scores.
• For a description of the complete methodology, see the Appendix below.

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation commissioned this poll by the Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research to survey public opinion on the national debt. The online poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationwide between November 18 and 20. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Detailed poll results can be found online at: www.pgpf.org/FiscalConfidenceIndex.

APPENDIX: Fiscal Confidence Index Methodology and Questions

• The Fiscal Confidence Index is released monthly by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
• The Fiscal Confidence Index value is based on six questions in three categories.
• As is done with the Consumer Confidence Index, the first step in calculating the Fiscal Confidence Index is determining the “Relative Value” for each question. This calculation is made by taking the positive response for each question and dividing it by the sum of the positive and negative responses. Each question was asked on a four-point scale, and answers were weighted according to intensity, with the strongest responses counting twice as much as the middle responses (“much” better or worse answers count twice as heavily as “somewhat” better or worse answers).
• The scores for the Concern, Priority, and Expectations categories are determined by averaging the scores derived from the two questions in each category.
• The Fiscal Confidence Index value is converted from the Relative Value to place it on a scale on which 100 indicates equal positive and negative sentiment, while values below 100 indicate negative sentiment and values above 100 indicate positive sentiment.
• The questions are as follows: